Confección de un índice de vulnerabilidad estructural de violencia intrafamiliar en Guatemala (2008-2023)

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se desarrolló un índice de vulnerabilidad estructural de violencia intrafamiliar para medir la vulnerabilidad de los casos dentro del contexto guatemalteco. Se inició con un análisis exploratorio de variables sociodemográficas para establecer relaciones y patrones, demostrando la correlación entre estas y la violencia intrafamiliar. Se utilizaron reglas Apriori para identificar patrones frecuentes, validados con pruebas chi-cuadrado, lo que permitió la selección de variables para la construcción de clases latentes (LCA). Finalmente, se construyó un índice de vulnerabilidad estructural a partir de los perfiles de las clases latentes y un indicador de apoyo institucional, utilizando bootstrapping para validar la robustez de los resultados.

Intrafamilial violence constitutes a critical social problem in Guatemala, affecting men, women, and children, with an alarming increase in reported cases in recent years. Despite existing records, a structured characterization of these cases using data analysis has not yet been developed. This project aims to build profiles of victims, perpetrators, and relationships within the context of intrafamilial violence based on sociodemographic and contextual variables. It uses public data from the National Institute of Statistics of Guatemala (2008-2023), Fire Department Associations, and IGGSS. From these pro les, the project seeks to generate an index that calculates the structural vulnerability of victims, proposing a methodological approach that includes data unification and cleaning, statistical exploration, establishment of significant associations through association rules and statistical tests, and feature engineering, construction of the various profiles based on the use of latent class techniques to use them as indicators. The construction of these profiles allows for the identification of common characteristics in victims, perpetrators, and relationships, while the index provides insight into the risk faced by victims of domestic violence, serving as a basis for prevention and intervention strategies. In this way, the aim is to contribute effectively to the understanding and mitigation of domestic violence in the country.